Every NFL offseason, the conversation inevitably revolves around the established powerhouses. We analyze the Chiefs, debate the 49ers, and project the Ravens’ ceiling. But beneath the glare of the usual suspects, several teams are quietly assembling the pieces for a significant leap forward.
These aren’t necessarily teams predicted to win the Super Bowl right now, but they are teams whose potential might be underestimated by the broader public and pundits. They possess the right mix of emerging talent, strategic offseason additions, or favourable circumstances that could see them vastly outperform expectations.
Who are these potential sleeping giants? Let’s spotlight a few underrated teams poised for a breakout season:
1. Indianapolis Colts
- Why They’re Underrated: Last season was largely defined by the flashes shown by rookie QB Anthony Richardson before a season-ending shoulder injury. Backup Gardner Minshew played admirably to keep them in contention, but the team’s true ceiling with Richardson remains largely theoretical after just four starts. They finished 9-8, respectable but not headline-grabbing.
- Breakout Potential:
- Anthony Richardson’s Return: If Richardson returns healthy and builds upon the incredible athletic potential and improved passing he showed early on, the Colts’ offense transforms. His dual-threat ability puts immense stress on defenses.
- Shane Steichen’s Offense: In year two under Steichen (who previously unlocked Jalen Hurts), the offense should be more comfortable and tailored to Richardson’s unique skillset.
- Solid Supporting Cast: Jonathan Taylor is still an elite running back, Michael Pittman Jr. is a reliable WR1, Josh Downs impressed as a rookie, and the offensive line is typically solid. Additions like rookie WR Adonai Mitchell provide more firepower.
- Opportunistic Defense: While not elite, the Colts’ defense showed flashes of playmaking ability. Continued development from young players could make them a solid complementary unit.
- What Needs to Go Right: Richardson’s health is paramount. His development as a consistent passer is key. The defense needs to take another step forward.
2. Green Bay Packers
- Why They’re Underrated: Yes, they made a surprising run to the Divisional Round last year, but entering the season, expectations were low for the league’s youngest team and first-year starting QB Jordan Love. While Love exceeded all expectations, the perception might still lag behind reality – many might see last year’s finish as a bit of a fluke rather than a sign of sustainable success.
- Breakout Potential:
- Jordan Love’s Ascent: Love proved he’s the real deal, showcasing poise, arm talent, and leadership. A full offseason as the unquestioned starter, building chemistry with his young weapons, could lead to an even better year.
- Young Weapons Galore: Jayden Reed, Romeo Doubs, Christian Watson (if healthy), Dontayvion Wicks, Luke Musgrave, and Tucker Kraft form arguably the most exciting young group of pass-catchers in the league. Natural progression makes this group dangerous.
- Offensive System: Matt LaFleur’s offensive scheme is QB-friendly and effective. Year two for Love within it should yield greater mastery.
- Defensive Overhaul: Hiring Jeff Hafley as defensive coordinator signals a shift towards a more aggressive, attacking style that might better suit their personnel, especially with additions like S Xavier McKinney.
- What Needs to Go Right: The young receivers need to continue their rapid development. The offensive line needs to hold up. The new defensive scheme needs to click quickly.
3. Atlanta Falcons
- Why They’re Underrated: Years of offensive mediocrity and questionable quarterback play have kept the Falcons out of serious contention. Despite having exciting young skill players, they finished 7-10 last season under Arthur Smith, seemingly unable to unlock their potential consistently.
- Breakout Potential:
- Kirk Cousins Arrives: The signing of veteran Pro Bowl QB Kirk Cousins is the single biggest reason for optimism. If healthy (coming off an Achilles injury), he provides a massive upgrade in stability, accuracy, and pre-snap processing, capable of maximizing the team’s weapons.
- Untapped Offensive Arsenal: Bijan Robinson, Drake London, and Kyle Pitts form a tantalizing trio. Cousins is arguably the best QB they’ve ever played with and should elevate their production significantly.
- New Coaching Staff: Raheem Morris takes over as head coach, bringing energy and defensive acumen. Offensive Coordinator Zac Robinson comes from the Sean McVay tree, promising a more modern and effective offensive scheme.
- Potential for Defensive Improvement: Morris’s defensive background and some solid pieces (like safety Jessie Bates III) could lead to improvement on that side of the ball.
- What Needs to Go Right: Cousins needs to return to form post-injury and stay healthy. The offensive line must protect him. The new schemes on both sides need to be implemented effectively.
4. Chicago Bears
- Why They’re Underrated: They picked #1 overall for a reason, finishing 7-10. While there’s immense hype around rookie QB Caleb Williams, rookie quarterbacks historically face steep learning curves. Many might expect improvement, but perhaps not a full “breakout” into playoff contention immediately.
- Breakout Potential:
- Caleb Williams’ Talent: Williams is widely considered a generational QB prospect with elite arm talent and playmaking ability. If he adapts quickly, he could elevate the entire franchise.
- Vastly Improved Weapons: Trading for Keenan Allen and drafting Rome Odunze to pair with DJ Moore gives Williams an outstanding trio of receivers. Add Cole Kmet at TE and new RB D’Andre Swift, and the offensive weaponry is suddenly top-tier.
- Improving Defense: The defense, particularly after acquiring Montez Sweat mid-season last year, played significantly better down the stretch. Continued growth under Matt Eberflus could make them a formidable unit.
- Weakening Division?: While the Packers and Lions are strong, the Vikings are in transition. There might be an opportunity for the Bears to make noise faster than expected.
- What Needs to Go Right: Williams needs to live up to the hype and minimize rookie mistakes. The offensive line must protect him. The defense needs to maintain its late-season momentum.
Honorable Mention: Los Angeles Rams
While they made the playoffs last year, the Rams might still be slightly undervalued. If young stars like Puka Nacua and Kyren Williams avoid sophomore slumps, and Matthew Stafford stays healthy, Sean McVay could coach this team beyond expectations again, even with Aaron Donald’s retirement leaving a huge hole.
Predicting breakouts is never an exact science, but these teams have the ingredients – quarterback potential, impactful additions, coaching advantages, or a combination thereof – to shake up the NFL hierarchy this season. Don’t be surprised if one or more of them are playing meaningful games deep into January.
Which underrated team are YOU keeping an eye on for a breakout season? Share your picks in the comments below!
