The College Football Playoff era, beginning with the 2014 season, was designed to pit the nation’s best against the best, leaving less room for doubt about who the true champion is. But even in this pressure cooker environment featuring elite programs, the unpredictable magic of college football sometimes strikes, delivering upsets that send shockwaves through the sport.
These aren’t just close games; these are instances where overwhelming favorites faltered, underdogs rose to the occasion, and the perceived order of the college football universe was turned upside down on the biggest stage.
Here are some of the craziest upsets since the CFP began:
1. TCU Horned Frogs (#3) def. Michigan Wolverines (#2) 51-45 – 2023 Fiesta Bowl (Semifinal)
- The Setup: Michigan entered the game undefeated, Big Ten champions, and looked like a physical juggernaut ready to finally break through after a semifinal loss the previous year. TCU, led by Max Duggan and Sonny Dykes, was the Cinderella story – the first Big 12 team other than Oklahoma to make the CFP, widely seen as maybe not belonging despite their thrilling season. Michigan was a heavy favorite (around 7.5-9 points).
- The Shock: What unfolded was pure chaos. TCU jumped out early with pick-sixes and big plays, refusing to be intimidated by Michigan’s physicality. Michigan battled back, but crucial mistakes (goal-line fumble, questionable play calls) and TCU’s relentless offense kept the Horned Frogs ahead. It was a wild, high-scoring affair that defied all expectations of a Michigan domination.
- The Impact: This was arguably the biggest point-spread upset in CFP history. It validated TCU’s incredible season, silenced doubters (at least temporarily), and sent a supposedly superior Michigan team packing in stunning fashion. It showcased the beautiful unpredictability that can still exist even at the playoff level.
2. Ohio State Buckeyes (#4) def. Alabama Crimson Tide (#1) 42-35 – 2015 Sugar Bowl (Semifinal)
- The Setup: This was the first ever CFP semifinal game. Alabama, under Nick Saban, was the SEC Champion and the undisputed top seed. Ohio State, led by Urban Meyer, snuck into the playoff as the #4 seed after destroying Wisconsin in the Big Ten title game… with their third-string quarterback, Cardale Jones, who was making only his second career start. Alabama was favored by a significant margin (around 7.5-9 points).
- The Shock: Ohio State didn’t just hang around; they went toe-to-toe with the mighty Tide. Ezekiel Elliott ran wild (230 yards, 2 TDs), Cardale Jones made clutch throws, and the Buckeye defense made key stops against Alabama’s potent offense. A late interception sealed the improbable victory for the Buckeyes.
- The Impact: This win legitimized the CFP concept in its very first year, proving a #4 seed could beat #1. It launched Cardale Jones into temporary cult hero status and propelled Ohio State to ultimately win the inaugural CFP National Championship. It showed that even Saban’s dominant Tide could be vulnerable.
3. Clemson Tigers (#2) def. Alabama Crimson Tide (#1) 44-16 – 2019 National Championship
- The Setup: Alabama entered this game undefeated, defending national champions, and boasting arguably one of Saban’s most talented teams ever, led by Tua Tagovailoa. They looked virtually unstoppable and were solid favorites (around 5.5 points) over a Clemson team also undefeated but led by true freshman quarterback Trevor Lawrence. Many expected a close battle, perhaps leaning Bama’s way.
- The Shock: This wasn’t just an upset; it was a dismantling. Clemson dominated Alabama in stunning fashion from start to finish. Lawrence played with veteran poise, the Clemson defensive line harassed Tagovailoa, and the receivers made spectacular plays. The 28-point margin of victory against that Alabama team was utterly shocking.
- The Impact: This game announced the arrival of Trevor Lawrence as a transcendent star and cemented Clemson as a true elite power capable of not just competing with, but dominating, Alabama. It handed Nick Saban his worst loss at Alabama and momentarily shifted the balance of power at the very top of the sport.
Honorable Mentions (Near Misses & Narrative Shocks):
- Georgia Bulldogs (#3) def. Alabama Crimson Tide (#1) 33-18 – 2022 National Championship: While Georgia was actually slightly favored (-2.5), beating Saban’s Alabama after decades of frustration and a loss just weeks earlier in the SEC Championship felt like a monumental upset narratively for the Bulldogs and their long-suffering fans.
- Georgia Bulldogs (#1) def. Ohio State Buckeyes (#4) 42-41 – 2023 Peach Bowl (Semifinal): Ohio State was a significant underdog (+6.5) and came agonizingly close to pulling off a massive upset, leading late before a missed field goal as time expired allowed Georgia to escape.
The College Football Playoff era, while often showcasing the dominance of a few programs, has proven that assumptions can be shattered and underdogs can have their day even when the stakes are highest. These games remind us why we watch – for the potential of the unexpected, the improbable, and the downright crazy. With the expansion to 12 teams on the horizon, the potential for even wilder upsets looms large.
What do YOU consider the biggest upset in CFP history? Did we miss one? Share your thoughts in the comments!
